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TROPICAL WEATHER
2021 TROPICAL NAMES
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida
Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette
- Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda
| Category | Sustained Winds | Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h | Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. |
| 2 | 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h | Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. |
| 3 (major) | 111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h | Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes. |
| 4 (major) | 130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h | Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. |
| 5 (major) | 157 mph or higher 137 kt or higher 252 km/h or higher | Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. |
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of
Mexico
Updated at 2 and 8 from the
National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT
from June 1 to November 30.
Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
NOAA 48-hr TC Formation Probability
MJO OLR FORECAST
Tropical Models
SHORT RANGE Computer Models
NCEP/EMC Tracking of Cyclogenesis in Models
Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts
GFS MODEL, CMC MODEL,
ECMWF MODEL, &
NAVY MODEL
CLICK THE GRAPHIC TO VIEW AND OPEN
COMPARED IN TIME!
GFS MODEL
Courtesy of Levi Cowen at Tropical Tidbits
ECMFW MODEL
CMC MODEL
NAVY MODEL
OTHER TROPICAL GRAPHICS and ANALYSIS
Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP! It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.
Sea Surface Temperatures or SST's
80 degrees Fer. or 26.5 degrees Celsius is the Temperature
needed for Tropical Development Normally!
24hr Shear Tendency - North Atlantic - 6 Hours Previous
Shear Map Click open a new window to loop.....
GFS Shear
CMC Shear
Navy Shear
Steering Layer 700-850mb or
1000mb pressure 45kts storms
Steering Layer 500-850mb or
990-999mb pressure 45-60kts storms
Steering Layer 400-850mb or
970-989mb/60-90kts storms
Steering Layer 300-850mb or
950-969mb pressure 90-112kts storms
Steering Layer 250-850mb or
940-949mb pressure 112-122kts storms
Steering Layer 200-700mb or
940mb pressure 122kts and larger storms
925mb Vorticity
850mb Vorticity
700mb Vorticity
500mb Vorticity
200mb Vorticity
Upper Divergence
Lower Convergence
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Data provided by National Data Buoy Center
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Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!
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